Black Friday Forecast 2025: Why Experts Predict Less Spending, but More Competition

If you’re selling on major ecommerce retailers this season, the headline is a nuanced one: the Black Friday sales forecast points to slower top-line growth—but a fiercer fight for every dollar. Deloitte expects U.S. holiday retail sales to grow just 2.9%–3.4%, the slowest pace since the pandemic, even as ecommerce continues to outpace brick-and-mortar. The firm projects total holiday spending at $1.61–$1.62 trillion, with in-store gains barely clearing 2%. In other words, wallets are still opening—but shoppers are choosier, timing purchases around deep promotions and waiting for the best event-day deals, especially over Cyber Week.

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However, the digital side of the Black Friday sales forecast tells a different story—one of resilience and recalibration. Shoppers are still spending, but they’re doing it on their own terms: researching longer, comparing harder, and waiting for the right deal to drop. The appetite for value is strong, and Cyber Week is shaping up to capture an even bigger slice of total holiday sales. Think less impulse, more intention. It’s not about buying more—it’s about buying smarter. For brands, that means online demand isn’t fading; it’s getting sharper, faster, and more competitive, driven by algorithms, retail media, and a consumer mindset that rewards the best offer at the best moment.

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Two forces are likely to make the scramble even tougher for marketplace sellers. First, AI-driven discovery: Adobe expects a surge in AI-originated traffic and deal-seeking, which can quickly concentrate demand on a handful of best-priced, best-reviewed listings. Second, retail-media pressure: as more brands crowd into Amazon and Walmart ads to harvest event demand, CPCs tend to rise and efficiency hinges on creative, feed quality, and retail readiness (availability, badges, fast-ship). Together, these dynamics suggest a Black Friday sales forecast where “good enough” merchandising gets invisible fast.