What 6 Months of 2025 E-Com Data Tells Us About the Rest of the Year

E-commerce in 2025 has already seen seismic shifts—and we’re only halfway through. From changing consumer behavior to emerging marketplace dynamics, the data from the first six months offers clear signals about what brands should expect (and prepare for) in Q3 and Q4.

Here’s a breakdown of the most impactful trends from H1 2025 and the key takeaways for the rest of the year.

1. 📦 Consumer Spending Is Up—But It’s Smarter

Key Insight:
Compared to H1 2024, e-commerce sales are up 8.2% YoY. However, conversion rates are slightly down, indicating that consumers are browsing more and buying more selectively.

What It Means for You:

• Expect more value-driven behavior heading into the holidays.
• Shoppers are comparing price, shipping speed, and reviews across platforms.
• Budget-friendly bundles, loyalty perks, and “limited-time” offers are converting best.

Pro Tip:
Focus on transparent pricing, high-impact value props, and compelling urgency-based messaging in your PDPs and ads.

2. 🛒 Amazon and Walmart Continue to Dominate—but TikTok Shop Is the Wildcard

Key Insight:

• Amazon remains king with 38% of U.S. e-com share.
• Walmart Marketplace grew 16% YoY in active sellers and listings.
• TikTok Shop saw a staggering 300% growth in daily checkouts vs. Q4 2024, largely fueled by viral campaigns and creator-driven commerce.

What It Means for You:

• Brands need multi-channel strategies.
• Amazon remains critical, but TikTok Shop offers fast growth potential, especially for visually compelling, lower-ticket items.
• Walmart is increasingly a go-to for household goods, health, and grocery sellers.

Pro Tip:
Diversify. Tap into each platform’s strength—Amazon for trust and scale, Walmart for essentials, and TikTok Shop for viral lift and discovery.

3. 📱 Mobile Commerce Rules the Game

Key Insight:
Mobile traffic accounted for 74% of total e-commerce visits in the first half of 2025. Checkout completion on mobile is also rising thanks to one-click checkout integrations.

What It Means for You:

• If your store or product listing isn’t optimized for mobile, you’re missing conversions.
• Speed, visual hierarchy, and mobile-friendly descriptions are more important than ever.

Pro Tip:
Audit your mobile experience today. Focus on page load time, thumb-friendly layouts, and easy access to reviews and CTAs.

4. 📈 Ad Spend Is Shifting Toward Lower-Funnel Formats

Key Insight:
Brands have increased investment in retail media and shoppable ads, while pulling back slightly on top-of-funnel display spend.

• Amazon Sponsored Products and Walmart Search Ads are outperforming broader social CPMs.
• TikTok and Meta are still valuable—but need tighter creative targeting.

What It Means for You:

• ROAS is coming from intent-driven traffic.
• Brands are investing where conversions happen—not just impressions.

Pro Tip:
Double down on shoppable video, search ads, and on-site retargeting. Leverage UGC or influencer reviews to shorten the path to purchase.

5. 📉 Returns & Logistics Remain a Major Pain Point

Key Insight:

• Average return rates in apparel and electronics remain above 18%.
• Free shipping is now expected—but sellers offering easy, frictionless returns are retaining more customers.

What It Means for You:

• Your fulfillment and reverse logistics experience can make or break repeat business.
• Faster delivery = better conversion.
• Frustrating return policies = lost loyalty.

Pro Tip:
Partner with 3PLs or marketplaces offering turnkey fulfillment (like WFS or FBA). Highlight return policies clearly and make them customer-friendly.

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